Accuracy
Every podium we call is scored against the real finish. Here is the 2026 record so far. We expect it to sharpen as the season accumulates.
We report qualitative bands, not percentages, until calibration is measured over enough races. 10 logged so far.
These are our past results, not forecast probabilities.
- Races scored
- 10
- plus 7 from testing, not counted
- Top-3 hit rate
- 63%
- share of podium places we called correctly
- Brier score
- 0.070
- lower is better-calibrated
- AustraliaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.087PredictedRUS ✓ANT ✓LEC ✓ActualRUSANTLEC
- ChinaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.043PredictedRUS ✓ANT ✓HAM ✓ActualANTRUSHAM
- JapanFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.101PredictedRUS ✗ANT ✓LEC ✓ActualANTPIALEC
- MiamiFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.122PredictedANT ✓LEC ✗RUS ✗ActualANTNORPIA
- CanadaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.129PredictedANT ✓RUS ✗NOR ✗ActualANTHAMVER
- MonacoFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.135PredictedHAM ✓RUS ✗NOR ✗ActualANTHAMGAS
- BarcelonaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.076PredictedANT ✗HAM ✓RUS ✓ActualHAMRUSNOR
- AustriaBrier 0.065PredictedRUS ✓HAM ✗ANT ✓ActualRUSVERANT
- Great BritainBrier 0.049PredictedRUS ✓HAM ✓ANT ✗ActualLECRUSHAM
- BelgiumBrier 0.084PredictedANT ✓HAM ✗LEC ✓ActualANTLECVER
- HungaryBrier 0.082PredictedHAM ✗ANT ✓LEC ✗ActualNORVERANT
- NetherlandsBrier 0.063PredictedANT ✓HAM ✗NOR ✓ActualNORANTRUS
- ItalyBrier 0.075PredictedNOR ✗ANT ✓RUS ✓ActualANTRUSVER
- SpainBrier 0.070PredictedANT ✓RUS ✗NOR ✓ActualANTVERNOR
- AzerbaijanBrier 0.092PredictedANT ✗RUS ✓VER ✓ActualRUSVERHAD
- BahrainBrier 0.061PredictedANT ✓RUS ✗VER ✓ActualVERANTHAM
- SingaporeBrier 0.057PredictedANT ✓VER ✓HAM ✗ActualVERLECANT