SECTOR4

Accuracy

Every podium we call is scored against the real finish. Here is the 2026 record so far. We expect it to sharpen as the season accumulates.

We report qualitative bands, not percentages, until calibration is measured over enough races. 3 logged so far.

These are our past results, not forecast probabilities.

Races scored
3
plus 7 from testing, not counted
Top-3 hit rate
67%
share of podium places we called correctly
Brier score
0.066
lower is better-calibrated
0%50%100%63%R1R2R3R4R5R6R7R8R9R10
live top-3 (cumulative) pre-launch (not counted) Brier (higher = better-calibrated)
  1. AustraliaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.087
    Predicted
    RUS ✓ANT ✓LEC ✓
    Actual
    RUSANTLEC
  2. ChinaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.043
    Predicted
    RUS ✓ANT ✓HAM ✓
    Actual
    ANTRUSHAM
  3. JapanFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.101
    Predicted
    RUS ✗ANT ✓LEC ✓
    Actual
    ANTPIALEC
  4. MiamiFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.122
    Predicted
    ANT ✓LEC ✗RUS ✗
    Actual
    ANTNORPIA
  5. CanadaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.129
    Predicted
    ANT ✓RUS ✗NOR ✗
    Actual
    ANTHAMVER
  6. MonacoFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.135
    Predicted
    HAM ✓RUS ✗NOR ✗
    Actual
    ANTHAMGAS
  7. BarcelonaFrom testing · not predicted liveBrier 0.076
    Predicted
    ANT ✗HAM ✓RUS ✓
    Actual
    HAMRUSNOR
  8. AustriaBrier 0.065
    Predicted
    RUS ✓HAM ✗ANT ✓
    Actual
    RUSVERANT
  9. Great BritainBrier 0.049
    Predicted
    RUS ✓HAM ✓ANT ✗
    Actual
    LECRUSHAM
  10. BelgiumBrier 0.084
    Predicted
    ANT ✓HAM ✗LEC ✓
    Actual
    ANTLECVER

SECTOR4

Sector 4 is an independent project, not affiliated with or endorsed by Formula 1, FOM, the FIA, or any team. All driver and team names are used for editorial reference. Data sourced from publicly available timing.